Publications
In preparation, submitted, or under review
- Matsunobu, T., Keil, C., & Craig, G. C. (2026) Tracing variance changes arising from model uncertainty in ensemble data assimilation. submitted.
Peer-reviewed articles
Matsunobu, T., Keil, C., & Craig, G. C. (2026) A variance budget to estimate the growth and interaction of uncertainties in convective-scale forecasts. Monthly Weather Review, 154, 227–246. https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-25-0024.1
Tintó Prims, O., Redl, R., Rautenhaus, M., Selz, T., Matsunobu, T., Modali, K. R., & Craig, G. (2024) The effect of lossy compression of numerical weather prediction data on data analysis: A case study using enstools-compression 2023.11. Geoscientific Model Development, 17, 8909–8925. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8909-2024
Matsunobu, T., Puh, M., & Keil, C. (2024) Flow- and scale-dependent spatial predictability of convective precipitation combining different model uncertainty representations. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 150(761), 2364–2381. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4713
Matsunobu, T., Quinting, J. F., Grams, C. M., & Matsueda, M. (2023) Regional extreme precipitation events in wintertime Japan facilitated by East-Asian large-scale flow patterns. SOLA, 19, 253–260. https://doi.org/10.2151/sola.2023-033
Matsunobu, T., Keil, C., & Barthlott, C. (2022) The impact of microphysical uncertainty conditional on initial and boundary condition uncertainty under varying synoptic control. Weather and Climate Dynamics, 3(4), 1273–1289. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1273-2022
Barthlott, C., Zarboo, A., Matsunobu, T., & Keil, C. (2022) Impacts of combined microphysical and land-surface uncertainties on convective clouds and precipitation in different weather regimes. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 22(16), 10841–10860. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-10841-2022
Magnusson, L., Ackerley, D., Bouteloup, Y., Chen, J.-H., Doyle, J., Earnshaw, P., Kwon, Y. C., Köhler, M., Lang, S. T. K., Lim, Y.-J., Matsueda, M., Matsunobu, T., McTaggart-Cowan, R., Reinecke, A., Yamaguchi, M., & Zhou, L. (2022) Skill of medium-range forecast models using the same initial conditions. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 103(9), E2050–E2068. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0234.1
Barthlott, C., Zarboo, A., Matsunobu, T., & Keil, C. (2022) Importance of aerosols and shape of the cloud droplet size distribution for convective clouds and precipitation. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 22(3), 2153–2172. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2153-2022
Saito, K., Matsunobu, T., & Oizumi, T. (2022) Effect of upper-air moistening by northward ageostrophic winds associated with a tropical cyclone on the PRE enhancement. SOLA, 18, 81–87. https://doi.org/10.2151/sola.2022-014
Saito, K., & Matsunobu, T. (2020) Northward ageostrophic winds associated with a tropical cyclone. Part 2: Moisture transport and its impact on PRE. SOLA, 16, 198–205. https://doi.org/10.2151/sola.2020-034
Matsunobu, T., & Tanaka, H. L. (2019) Time series analysis of normal mode energetics for Rossby wave breaking and saturation using a simple barotropic model. Atmospheric Science Letters, 20(11), e940. https://doi.org/10.1002/ASL.940
Matsunobu, T., & Matsueda, M. (2019) Assessing the predictability of heavy rainfall events in Japan in early July 2018 on medium-range timescales. SOLA, 15A, 19–24. https://doi.org/10.2151/sola.15A-004
Other publication
Matsunobu, T., and Matsueda, M. (2022) Medium-range forecast skill of various operational NWP models for the July 2018 severe rainfall event in Japan. In: Meteorological Research Note Vol. 246 (ed. H. Endo, H. Nakamura, Y. Tachibana), 107–116, Meteorological society of Japan (in Japanese)
Saito, K., Duc, L., Matsunobu, T., and Kurihana, T. (2022) Perturbations by the Ensemble Transform. In: Data Assimilation for Atmospheric, Oceanic and hydrologic Appplications (Vol. IV) (ed. S. K. Park, L. Xu), 115–141, Springer.